تغییر اقلیم یشکی از چالشهای اصلی و مهم در مدیریت منابع آب بهویژه در مناطق خشک و نیمهخشک محسوب میشود که میتواند اثرات چشمگیری بر فرآیندهای هیدرولوژیک حوضه داشته باشد. در این پژوهش، بهمنظور ارزیابی تأثیر تغییر اقلیم بر پاسخ هیدرولوژیک حوضه گلرودبار در استان سمنان، از ترکیب مدل آماری ریزمقیاسنمایی SDSM و مدل هیدرولوژیک SWATاستفاده شده است. دادههای اقلیمی آینده با استفاده از مدل CanESM5، تحت سناریوهای SSP1-2.6، SSP2-4.5 و SSP5-8.5 برای دوره ۲۰۲۵–۲۰۴۹ تهیه و پس از ریزمقیاسنمایی، به مدل SWAT وارد شد. براساس نتایج به دست آمده از عملکرد مدل، مقادیر ضریب نش-ساتکلیف و ضریب تعیین در دوره واسنجی بهترتیب برابر با 66/0 و 66/0 و برای دوره صحتسنجی به ترتیب برابر 55/0 و 79/0 میباشد که نشاندهنده عملکرد مناسب مدل در شبیهسازی است. همچنین براساس نتایج حاصل، در سناریوی SSP5-8.5، بیشترین مقدار افزایش میانگین ماهانه رواناب نسبت به دوره تاریخی در ماه آگوست رخ داده که برابر با 30/51 درصد میباشد و در سناریوی SSP1-2.6، بیشترین کاهش رواناب (ماه ژانویه) برابر 05/64 - درصد است. نتایج حاصل بیانگر آسیبپذیری زیاد حوضه گلرودبار نسبت به تغییرات اقلیمی آتی و انتشار گازهای گلخانهای است و لزوم بازنگری در راهبردهای مدیریت منابع آب منطقه را برجسته میسازد.
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