پژوهش آب ایران

پژوهش آب ایران

ارائه مدلی جهت مدیریت مصارف آبی کشاورزی، صنعتی و خانگی ایران با رویکرد پویایی‌شناسی سیستم‌ها

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 گروه صنعتی، فناوری اطلاعات و تکنولوژی
2 هیات علمی واحد تهران مرکزی دانشگاه ازاد اسلامی
3 هیات علمی واحد تهران مرکزی دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی
چکیده
کمبود منابع آبی را می‌توان جزو مهم‌ترین مشکلاتی در نظر گرفت که امروزه تمامی ابعاد زندگی مردم ایران را تحت تأثیر قرار داده است. نظر به اهمیت مساله، در این تحقیق در ابتدا فرضیات دینامیکی موجود در سیستم تامین منابع آبی با کمک نمودار علت و معلولی نشان داده شد. این کار با استفاده از ابزار پویایی‌شناسی سیستم‌ها که کاربرد خود را در تحلیل و شبیه‌سازی انواع سیستم‌های اقتصادی-اجتماعی نشان داده انجام گرفت. سپس نمودار جریان انباشت ایجاد شد و پس از شبیه‌سازی و اعتبارسنجی مدل به تحلیل سناریوهای تعرفه‌ای و حاکمیتی در قبال آب تا سال 1420 پرداخته شد. نتایج نشان داد که تغییر تعرفه مصرف آب خانگی تأثیر چندانی بر روی موجودی منابع آبی نخواهد داشت. اما ازآنجاکه الگوی مصرف آب کشاورزی و صنعتی در بلندمدت اصلاح خواهد شد، افزایش تعرفه برای این بخش‌ها، در افق 20 ساله تأثیر به مراتب بهتری بر روی مدیریت منابع آب خواهد گذاشت. همچنین، در صورتی‌ که قوانین دولتی در خصوص توسعه صنایع آب‌بر، سطح زیر کشت و الگوی مصرف آب کشاورزی 20 درصد سخت‌گیرانه شود، با فرض ثبات در سایر پارامترهای مدل، تا سال 1420 منابع آبی زیرزمینی و منابع آبی پشت سدها به ترتیب 17 و 20 درصد افزایش خواهد یافت.
کلیدواژه‌ها
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  • تاریخ دریافت 13 اسفند 1402
  • تاریخ بازنگری 09 اردیبهشت 1403
  • تاریخ پذیرش 10 اردیبهشت 1403
  • تاریخ انتشار 01 تیر 1403