بررسی مسیر رفتار و آسیب‌شناسی بهره‌برداری از منابع آب دشت میاندوآب با استفاده از رویکرد ABM-FTA

Abstract

Introduction:

The growing trend of the population and the weakness of management structures in the Lake Urmia basin doubles the need for proper and useful use of the water resources in this basin. This requires the creation of a sustainable management plan in the water sector and the creation of suitable platforms considering the natural-social dimensions and the administrative structure at the local, provincial, and national levels. Considering the existing limitations in the water resources of Lake Urmia, it is necessary to consider the relationships between users in addition to economic values and social issues for better management of water resources. Lake Urmia is the largest internal lake in Iran, which is deteriorating due to climatic and human problems. The increase in the area under water cultivation, the decrease in precipitation, the low efficiency of agricultural irrigation in the catchment area of Lake Urmia, and the lack of allocation of sufficient water to meet the biological needs of the rivers leading to the lake, are considered to be the most important factors aggravating the crisis and dryness of Lake Urmia. In addition to climate changes, droughts, and natural factors, the weakness in managing water resources caused by human factors has also had a significant impact on the present crisis in Lake Urmia. The Lake Urmia basin needs a comprehensive assessment to determine the risk of total failure due to numerous problems caused by the lack of water resources, poor water quality, ecological risks, and socio-economic damages.



Methods:

In the present research, firstly, the social interactions and economic interests of the beneficiaries under different facility scenarios and the supervision and training of the government to evaluate its effects on the decision-making of independent users are presented in the form of an agent-based model (ABM). Next, using fault tree analysis (FTA), the scenarios that led to the lack of optimal use of water resources in the Lake Urmia basin were identified. Regional information (Miandoab Plain located in the southeast of Lake Urmia) was collected as an example of the areas affecting the management of water resources in the Lake Urmia basin using field measurements, questionnaires, and expert interviews. Then, the factors that make up the general structure of the ABM simulation model in NetLogo 6.2.2. the software was identified. In the presented ABM model, the way to change the characteristics, and behaviors of a group of farmers and the effect of government decisions on them are modeled as two main and influential factors in the exploitation of limited surface and groundwater resources. By using this model, a clearer picture of the complex adaptive system of each farmer's decisions in interaction and communication with other farmers and the environment in the face of government policies is obtained. The FTA model was created to quantify and evaluate different scenarios of non-proper exploitation of the water resources of the Miandoab Plain. Cara-FaultTree 4.1. software was used for the complete graphical representation of the overall risk of the basin due to its unique features and the simplicity of the environment.



Results:

The findings show that at the 95% confidence level, uncertainty, sustainable water supply, and government supervision and training with p-value=0.0 are the most effective indicators of field application efficiency. Supervision and training play an important role in their desire to increase water productivity and benefit from government facilities due to their influence on the propensity of farmers. According to the quantitative ranking of the basic events, the main reasons for the failure in the Miandoab plain are the low awareness of the residents of the basin and the lack of propensity and demand in the farmers, with failure probabilities of 0.90 and 0.86, respectively. The inappropriate social structure of the Lake Urmia basin is the main cause of its disastrous situation. To develop the presented framework, it is possible to consider the integrated exploitation model of surface and groundwater as the simulation-ecological model environment. It is also possible to consider the impact of different climate change scenarios in the process of changing the behavior of agents and making policies according to these changes. ABM and FTA approaches are efficient tools for collaborative management, designing effective strategies and water resource management policies, and by using these approaches, while modeling the behavior of different stakeholders, relationships, and interactions between them and with the environment, with the dynamic participation of individual and group stakeholders and an institution in the modeling process, correct and appropriate decisions can be made.