Investigating the path of behavior and pathology of exploitation of water resources in the Lake Urmia basin using the ABM-FTA approach

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Postdoctoral Researcher, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension, Organization, Agricultural Engineering Research Institute, Karaj, Alborz, Iran

2 Associated Professor, Agricultural Engineering Research Institute, Karaj, Alborz, Iran

Abstract
The growing trend of the population and the weakness of management structures in the Lake Urmia bsin doubles the need for proper and useful use of the water resources in this basin. This requires the creation of a sustainable management plan in the water sector and the creation of suitable platforms considering the natural-social dimensions and the administrative structure at the local, provincial and national levels. Considering the existing limitations in the water resources of the Lake Urmia, it is necessary to consider the relationships between users in addition to economic values and social issues for better management of water resources. Lake Urmia is the largest internal lake in Iran, which is deteriorating due to climatic and human problems. The increase in the area under water cultivation, the decrease in precipitation, the low efficiency of agricultural irrigation in the catchment area of Lake Urmia, and the lack of allocation of sufficient water to meet the biological needs of the rivers leading to the lake, are considered to be the most important factors aggravating the crisis and dryness of Lake Urmia. In addition to climate changes, droughts and natural factors, the weakness in the management of water resources caused by human factors has also had a significant impact on the present crisis in Lake Urmia. In this regard, in the present research, firstly, the social interactions and economic interests of the beneficiaries under different facility scenarios and the supervision and training of the government to evaluate its effects on the decision-making of independent users are presented in the form of a complex adaptive system (ABM). Next, using fault tree analysis (FTA), the scenarios that led to the failure of water resources in the Lake Urmia basin were identified. Regional information (Miandoab plain located in the southeast of Lake Urmia) was collected as an example of the areas affecting the management of water resources in the catchment area of Lake Urmia using field measurements, questionnaires and expert interviews. Then, the factors that make up the general structure of the ABM simulation model in NetLogo software were identified. The results showed that subsidy policy and government supervision and education play an essential role in increasing water productivity in Lake Urmia basin with F-value=4375.59, F-value=1055.10 and p-value=0.0 respectively at 95% confidence level. The evaluation of the effect of government supervision and trainng showed that the main reason for the failure of water resources in the Lake Lake basin area is the lack of propensityand demands of farmers and the low awareness of the residents of the basin with the probability of failure of 0.90 and 0.86, respectively. The results confirm that a detailed understanding of the patterns and connections of the studied basin by increasing farmers' motivation and awareness of the importance of long-term sustainability of water resources can lead to a suitable solution in the decision-making process and optimal use of water resources.

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  • Receive Date 29 April 2024
  • Accept Date 17 December 2025