Iranian Water Researches Journal

Proposing a model for water consumption management in Iranian agricultural, industrial, and household sectors: a system dynamics approach

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

Maryam movaseghi gilani 1
Mohammad Ali Afshar Kazemi 2
Mohammad Ali Keramati 2

1 Faculty of management, Tehran, Iran

2 Islamic Azad University of Central Tehran Branch

10.22034/iwrj.2024.14696.2590
Abstract
The scarcity of water resources can be considered one of the most important problems that has impacted all aspects of people's lives in Iran today. Given the significance of the issue, in this study, the dynamic hypotheses within the water resource supply system were initially illustrated through a causal loop diagram. This was done using the tool of system dynamics, which has proven its utility in analyzing and simulating various socio-economic systems. Subsequently, a Stock Flow Diagram was developed, and after model simulation and validation, scenarios involving tariff and governance in relation to water resources up to the year 1420 were analyzed. The results showed that changing household water consumption tariffs will not have much impact on water resource stocks. However, as the agricultural and industrial water consumption patterns are expected to be modified in the long term, increasing tariffs for these sectors will have a significantly better effect on water resource management over a 20-year horizon. If government regulations regarding water-intensive industries, cultivated land expansion, and agricultural water consumption become 20% more stringent, assuming stability in other model parameters, underground water resources and reservoir water resources are projected to increase by 17% and 20% respectively by the year 1420.

Keywords

Water resources management
System dynamics
Household
agriculture
and industry water consumption

Subjects

  • Receive Date 03 March 2024
  • Revise Date 28 April 2024
  • Accept Date 29 April 2024