تحلیل فراوانی منطقه‌ای سیلاب در حوضه آبخیز کارون بزرگ به کمک گشتاورهای خطی

نویسندگان

چکیده

یکی از روش‌های برآورد سیلاب طرح در حوضه‌های دارای کمبود آمار،‏ استفاده از روش‌های تحلیل فراوانی منطقه‌ای است. در این پژوهش،‏ تحلیل فراوانی منطقه‌ای سیلاب در حوضه آبخیز کارون بزرگ با استفاده از تحلیل خوشه‌ای انجام شده است. ابتدا ایستگاه‌های منطقه بررسی و تعداد 44 ایستگاه که آمار مناسبی داشتند،‏ انتخاب شد و سپس براساس مشخصات فیزیوگرافی حوضه به 3 منطقه تقسیم و با استفاده از معیار همگنی هاسکینگ و والیس و حذف و جابجایی ایستگاه‌ها در نهایت حوضه به چهار منطقه همگن تقسیم‌بندی شد. برای تشخیص بهترین تابع توزیع منطقه‌ای از کردار نسبت گشتاورهای خطی و آزمون نکویی برازش هاسکینگ و والیس استفاده شد. سپس پارامترهای توابع توزیع با استفاده از روش گشتاورهای وزنی برآورد شد. بدین ترتیب برای مناطق بدون آمار با محاسبه دبی میانگین حوضه می‌توان حداکثر دبی سیلاب با دوره بازگشت دلخواه را تعیین کرد. بنابراین کلیه نقاط بدون آمار که از نظر طراحی تأسیسات آبی و محاسبه بیلان آبی در کشاورزی نیاز به آمار دارند،‏ تحت سیطره اطلاعات منطقه‌ای قرار می‌گیرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Regional flood frequency analysis in Great Karun watershed using L-moments

نویسندگان [English]

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چکیده [English]

Regional flood frequency analysis is one of the most important methods for estimating flood in poorly gauged or ungauged catchments. In this study, a regional flood frequency analysis has been carried out, using cluster analysis approach in Great Karun watershed. After considering the stations in the area, 44 stations which had good data were selected. The watershed was firstly divided into 3 regions based on the physiographic characteristics and then by using the Hosking & Wallis homogeneity criterion and removing or displacing the stations, the watershed was finally divided into 4 homogeneous regions. In order to find the most suitable regional distributions for homogeneous regions, L-moment ratio diagram and Hosking & Wallis goodness of fit test has been used. The distribution parameters were estimated using the method of probability weighted moments (PWMs). Therefore, by calculating the average discharge, the maximum flood discharge for a given return period can be estimated for ungauged area. By applying this method, the regional flood frequency estimation will be possible for every zone, even ungauged area of the great Karun watershed.
Regional flood frequency analysis is one of the most important methods for estimating flood in poorly gauged or ungauged catchments. In this study, a regional flood frequency analysis has been carried out, using cluster analysis approach in Great Karun watershed. After considering the stations in the area, 44 stations which had good data were selected. The watershed was firstly divided into 3 regions based on the physiographic characteristics and then by using the Hosking & Wallis homogeneity criterion and removing or displacing the stations, the watershed was finally divided into 4 homogeneous regions. In order to find the most suitable regional distributions for homogeneous regions, L-moment ratio diagram and Hosking & Wallis goodness of fit test has been used. The distribution parameters were estimated using the method of probability weighted moments (PWMs). Therefore, by calculating the average discharge, the maximum flood discharge for a given return period can be estimated for ungauged area. By applying this method, the regional flood frequency estimation will be possible for every zone, even ungauged area of the great Karun watershed.
Regional flood frequency analysis is one of the most important methods for estimating flood in poorly gauged or ungauged catchments. In this study, a regional flood frequency analysis has been carried out, using cluster analysis approach in Great Karun watershed. After considering the stations in the area, 44 stations which had good data were selected. The watershed was firstly divided into 3 regions based on the physiographic characteristics and then by using the Hosking & Wallis homogeneity criterion and removing or displacing the stations, the watershed was finally divided into 4 homogeneous regions. In order to find the most suitable regional distributions for homogeneous regions, L-moment ratio diagram and Hosking & Wallis goodness of fit test has been used. The distribution parameters were estimated using the method of probability weighted moments (PWMs). Therefore, by calculating the average discharge, the maximum flood discharge for a given return period can be estimated for ungauged area. By applying this method, the regional flood frequency estimation will be possible for every zone, even ungauged area of the great Karun watershed.
Regional flood frequency analysis is one of the most important methods for estimating flood in poorly gauged or ungauged catchments. In this study, a regional flood frequency analysis has been carried out, using cluster analysis approach in Great Karun watershed. After considering the stations in the area, 44 stations which had good data were selected. The watershed was firstly divided into 3 regions based on the physiographic characteristics and then by using the Hosking & Wallis homogeneity criterion and removing or displacing the stations, the watershed was finally divided into 4 homogeneous regions. In order to find the most suitable regional distributions for homogeneous regions, L-moment ratio diagram and Hosking & Wallis goodness of fit test has been used. The distribution parameters were estimated using the method of probability weighted moments (PWMs). Therefore, by calculating the average discharge, the maximum flood discharge for a given return period can be estimated for ungauged area. By applying this method, the regional flood frequency estimation will be possible for every zone, even ungauged area of the great Karun watershed.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • regions-Homogeneous-Regional flood frequency analysis.-L-moments-