سامانه تصمیم‌یار منابع آب حوضه آبریز براساس محاسبه شاخص‌های کمی (مطالعه موردی: حوضه آبریز ارس)

نویسندگان

چکیده

در این مطالعه با استفاده از سامانه تصمیم‌یار مدیریت منابع آب که امکان تصمیم‌گیری براساس برآورد معیارهای زیست‌محیطی،‏ اجتماعی و اقتصادی را با محاسبه شاخص‌های کمی حاصل از خروجی مستقیم مدل برنامه‌ریزی منابع آب،‏ برای سناریوهای اقلیمی فراهم می‌کند،‏ حوضه آبریز ارس بررسی شد. این سامانه با شبیه‌سازی تخصیص آب سطحی برای تقاضاهای کشاورزی،‏ شرب و صنعت اثرات گزینه‌‌های مدیریتی پیشنهادی در شرایط مختلف را که بر تعادل عرضه و تقاضای آب تأثیر‌گذار هستند تحلیل می‌کند. برای بررسی عملکرد گزینه‌‌های مدیریتی با اندازه‌گیری نه شاخص پیشنهادی از ابزار ارزیابی و شبیه‌سازی Mike Basin و اتصال آن با نرم‌افزار صفحه گسترده Excel استفاده شد و برای تعیین بهترین گزینه مدیریتی،‏ از تحلیل چندمعیاره و روش تاپسیس استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد که گزینه کاهش تلفات و افزایش راندمان در سناریوی خوش‌بینانه و گزینه کاهش تلفات و کاهش سطح زیرکشت به‌ترتیب در سناریوی ادامه وضع موجود و سناریوی بدبینانه نسبت به سایر گزینه‌‌ها برتری دارند. علاوه بر این،‏ گزینه‌‌های عدم انتقال آب به حوضه دریاچه ارومیه و کاهش سطح زیرکشت به‌ تنهایی پایین‌ترین رتبه را درگزینه‌‌های پیشنهادی کسب کردند.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Water resources decision support system at basin scale based on calculating quantitative indicators (Case study: Aras basin)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Maryam Hafezparast
  • shahab Araghi nejad
چکیده [English]

In this study, water resources Decision Support System (DSS), which estimates quantitative indicators based on environmental, social and economical criteria under climate scenarios was investigated in the Aras river basin. The DSS analyzes the effects of management alternatives on balance of water supply and demand with simulating the water allocation between agricultural, domestic, and industrial demands. The Mike Basin water allocation model linked to Excel spreadsheet is used to evaluate the performance of 9 proposed indicators of management options and the Multi Criteria Decision Making analysis 'TOPSIS' is used to determine the best management options. The results indicated that the option of 'Reducing losses and Increasing efficiency' in the optimistic scenario and the option of 'Reducing losses and Reducing cultivated area in the scenario of continuation of current condition and pessimistic scenario are in the first rank. The individually alternatives of 'Don't water transfer to Urmia Lake basin' and 'Decrease cultivated area ' lied in the last rank.
In this study, water resources Decision Support System (DSS), which estimates quantitative indicators based on environmental, social and economical criteria under climate scenarios was investigated in the Aras river basin. The DSS analyzes the effects of management alternatives on balance of water supply and demand with simulating the water allocation between agricultural, domestic, and industrial demands. The Mike Basin water allocation model linked to Excel spreadsheet is used to evaluate the performance of 9 proposed indicators of management options and the Multi Criteria Decision Making analysis 'TOPSIS' is used to determine the best management options. The results indicated that the option of 'Reducing losses and Increasing efficiency' in the optimistic scenario and the option of 'Reducing losses and Reducing cultivated area in the scenario of continuation of current condition and pessimistic scenario are in the first rank. The individually alternatives of 'Don't water transfer to Urmia Lake basin' and 'Decrease cultivated area ' lied in the last rank.
In this study, water resources Decision Support System (DSS), which estimates quantitative indicators based on environmental, social and economical criteria under climate scenarios was investigated in the Aras river basin. The DSS analyzes the effects of management alternatives on balance of water supply and demand with simulating the water allocation between agricultural, domestic, and industrial demands. The Mike Basin water allocation model linked to Excel spreadsheet is used to evaluate the performance of 9 proposed indicators of management options and the Multi Criteria Decision Making analysis 'TOPSIS' is used to determine the best management options. The results indicated that the option of 'Reducing losses and Increasing efficiency' in the optimistic scenario and the option of 'Reducing losses and Reducing cultivated area in the scenario of continuation of current condition and pessimistic scenario are in the first rank. The individually alternatives of 'Don't water transfer to Urmia Lake basin' and 'Decrease cultivated area ' lied in the last rank.
In this study, water resources Decision Support System (DSS), which estimates quantitative indicators based on environmental, social and economical criteria under climate scenarios was investigated in the Aras river basin. The DSS analyzes the effects of management alternatives on balance of water supply and demand with simulating the water allocation between agricultural, domestic, and industrial demands. The Mike Basin water allocation model linked to Excel spreadsheet is used to evaluate the performance of 9 proposed indicators of management options and the Multi Criteria Decision Making analysis 'TOPSIS' is used to determine the best management options. The results indicated that the option of 'Reducing losses and Increasing efficiency' in the optimistic scenario and the option of 'Reducing losses and Reducing cultivated area in the scenario of continuation of current condition and pessimistic scenario are in the first rank. The individually alternatives of 'Don't water transfer to Urmia Lake basin' and 'Decrease cultivated area ' lied in the last rank.
In this study, water resources Decision Support System (DSS), which estimates quantitative indicators based on environmental, social and economical criteria under climate scenarios was investigated in the Aras river basin. The DSS analyzes the effects of management alternatives on balance of water supply and demand with simulating the water allocation between agricultural, domestic, and industrial demands. The Mike Basin water allocation model linked to Excel spreadsheet is used to evaluate the performance of 9 proposed indicators of management options and the Multi Criteria Decision Making analysis 'TOPSIS' is used to determine the best management options. The results indicated that the option of 'Reducing losses and Increasing efficiency' in the optimistic scenario and the option of 'Reducing losses and Reducing cultivated area in the scenario of continuation of current condition and pessimistic scenario are in the first rank. The individually alternatives of 'Don't water transfer to Urmia Lake basin' and 'Decrease cultivated area ' lied in the last rank.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • TOPSIS.-Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM)-Mike Basin-Decision Support System (DSS)-