تحلیل بارش ماهانه بندر انزلی با استفاده از نظریه آشوب در شرایط تغییر اقلیم

نویسندگان

چکیده

توسعه شهر‌ها و شدت یافتن آلودگی دو عامل مهم تغییر اقلیم است و این تغییر کاربری اراضی و بدتر شدن وضعیت زیست‌محیطی باعث تغییرات مکانی و زمانی بارش،‏ دما،‏ تبخیر و تعرق می‌شود. این مسئله پیچیدگی متغیرهای هیدرولوژیک را بیشتر و پیش‌بینی آن‌ها را سخت‌تر می‌کند. نظریه آشوب ابزاری است که بر مبنای رفتار آشوبناک و پیچیده بنا نهاده شده است و می‌تواند برای داده‌های بارش با ضریب تغییرات بالا مناسب باشد. در این پژوهش بارش ماهانه بندر انزلی در شرایط تاریخی و شرایط تغییر اقلیم با این نظریه بررسی شده است. بدین منظور دوره آماری 1993-2010 به‌عنوان دوره تاریخی و نتایج مدل LARS-WG تحت سه سناریوی (A1B)‎،‏ (B1) و (A2) در دوره زمانی (2020-2035) به‌عنوان دوره‌های آینده مد‌نظر قرار گرفت. نتایج بیانگر افزایش سیلاب و خشکسالی همراه با 14 درصد کاهش بارش در دوره آینده است و داده‌های تولیدی و تاریخی دارای رفتار آشوبناک قطعی بوده و سناریوی A2 با بعد فراکتالی 13‎/4 بیشترین پیچیدگی را در مقایسه با سایر سری داده‌ها دارد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Analysis of Monthly Rainfall in the Bandar Anzali Using Chaos Theory under Climate Change Condition

نویسندگان [English]

  • rasoul jani
  • mohammad ali ghorbani
  • Abolfazl shamsaei
چکیده [English]

Development of cities and the intensification of pollution are two important factors for climate change; on the other hand, changes in land usage and worsening environmental condition lead to the spatial and temporal variation in precipitation, temperature, and evapotranspiration etc., which make the hydrological variables more complex, and the prediction of them is more difficult. Chaos theory is a tool that proposed based on the chaotic and complex behavior and it can be appropriate for rainfall data with a higher variation coefficient. In this study, monthly rainfall of the Bandar Anzali in the historical and climate change condition has been considered by applying chaos theory. For this purpose, the period of 1993-2010 was chosen as historical period and the results of LARS-WG model under three scenarios (A1B), (B1), and (A2), in the period of 2020-2035 were considered as a future period. According to the results, flood and drought will increase with a 14 percent reduction in rainfall in the future period. Moreover, the historical and generated data series showed deterministic chaotic behavior and the A2 scenario with the fractal dimension of 4.13 showed the most complexity in comparison with others.Development of cities and the intensification of pollution are two important factors for climate change; on the other hand, changes in land usage and worsening environmental condition lead to the spatial and temporal variation in precipitation, temperature, and evapotranspiration etc., which make the hydrological variables more complex, and the prediction of them is more difficult. Chaos theory is a tool that proposed based on the chaotic and complex behavior and it can be appropriate for rainfall data with a higher variation coefficient. In this study, monthly rainfall of the Bandar Anzali in the historical and climate change condition has been considered by applying chaos theory. For this purpose, the period of 1993-2010 was chosen as historical period and the results of LARS-WG model under three scenarios (A1B), (B1), and (A2), in the period of 2020-2035 were considered as a future period. According to the results, flood and drought will increase with a 14 percent reduction in rainfall in the future period. Moreover, the historical and generated data series showed deterministic chaotic behavior and the A2 scenario with the fractal dimension of 4.13 showed the most complexity in comparison with others.Development of cities and the intensification of pollution are two important factors for climate change; on the other hand, changes in land usage and worsening environmental condition lead to the spatial and temporal variation in precipitation, temperature, and evapotranspiration etc., which make the hydrological variables more complex, and the prediction of them is more difficult. Chaos theory is a tool that proposed based on the chaotic and complex behavior and it can be appropriate for rainfall data with a higher variation coefficient. In this study, monthly rainfall of the Bandar Anzali in the historical and climate change condition has been considered by applying chaos theory. For this purpose, the period of 1993-2010 was chosen as historical period and the results of LARS-WG model under three scenarios (A1B), (B1), and (A2), in the period of 2020-2035 were considered as a future period. According to the results, flood and drought will increase with a 14 percent reduction in rainfall in the future period. Moreover, the historical and generated data series showed deterministic chaotic behavior and the A2 scenario with the fractal dimension of 4.13 showed the most complexity in comparison with others.Development of cities and the intensification of pollution are two important factors for climate change; on the other hand, changes in land usage and worsening environmental condition lead to the spatial and temporal variation in precipitation, temperature, and evapotranspiration etc., which make the hydrological variables more complex, and the prediction of them is more difficult. Chaos theory is a tool that proposed based on the chaotic and complex behavior and it can be appropriate for rainfall data with a higher variation coefficient. In this study, monthly rainfall of the Bandar Anzali in the historical and climate change condition has been considered by applying chaos theory. For this purpose, the period of 1993-2010 was chosen as historical period and the results of LARS-WG model under three scenarios (A1B), (B1), and (A2), in the period of 2020-2035 were considered as a future period. According to the results, flood and drought will increase with a 14 percent reduction in rainfall in the future period. Moreover, the historical and generated data series showed deterministic chaotic behavior and the A2 scenario with the fractal dimension of 4.13 showed the most complexity in comparison with others.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Rainfall.-Bandar Anzali-Chaos theory-Climate change-LARS-WG model-