کاربرد یک مدل بارش رواناب شش پارامتری با تأکید بر واسنجی و رفتار پارامترها در حوضه آبریز بار- اریه

نویسندگان

چکیده

پیچیدگی مدل هرگز دلیلی بر دقیق بودن آن نبوده است. در عمل مدل‌هایی که نسبت به طبیعت و ذات پدیده‌ها و براساس نوع کاربرد آن طراحی می‌شوند،‏ بهتر هستند. چالش اصلی این نیست که تمام فرایندهایی که درک می‌شود جزء به جزء وارد مدل شود،‏ در واقع این امر غیرممکن است،‏ بلکه لازم است تا مسائل ساده شود و بر مهم‌ترین و تأثیرگذارترین فرآیندها تمرکز شود. در این پژوهش برای مدل‌سازی بارش- رواناب از مدل WASMOD استفاده شد که علی‌رغم سادگی نتایج آن با واقعیت هماهنگی خوبی دارد. این مدل تنها از داده‌های پایه هواشناسی شامل دما و بارندگی استفاده می‌کند،‏ در نتیجه هزینه و زمان مدل‌سازی کاهش می‌یابد. این مدل با مقیاس زمانی ماهانه برای دو دوره 15 ساله 1354-1368 و 1374-1388 به‌ترتیب واسنجی و ارزیابی شد. تحلیل حساسیت براساس میانگین مطلق خطای مدل نسبت به تغییرات پارامترهای مدل انجام شد که در این مرحله تصدیق انطباق رفتار پارامترها با رفتار هیدرولوژیک حوضه آبریز به دست آمد. در کل با توجه به سطح دقت و میزان داده‌های مورد نیاز،‏ مدل توانایی خوبی در شبیه‌سازی رواناب نشان داد. نتایج شبیه‌سازی با واقعیت هماهنگی نزدیکی داشت و ضریب ناش در مراحل واسنجی و ارزیابی به‌ترتیب برابر 62‎/0 و 55‎/0 به دست آمد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Application of a 6-parameter Rainfall-Runoff Model with focusing on calibration and behavior of parameters (Case Study: Bar-Arieh Basin)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Milad Ghallehban Tekmedash
  • Kamran Davary
  • ALi naghi Ziaei
  • Azizolah Izady
چکیده [English]

Model complexity is not sufficient for its accuracy. In practice, the models which are designed according to the nature of process and its applicability are more common. The main challenge is not to understand all the details about the process, but to make the problem simple and focus on the most important and effective factors. In this study, the WASMOD software is used to rainfall-runoff modeling. Despite of the simplicity of this model, the obtained results have good consistency with the observed values. It needs only basic meteorological data for a basin such as: precipitation and temperature, so it takes less time and cost for modeling. The model was run on a monthly time scale for two 15-year periods: calibration period (1975-1989) and verification period (1995-2009). The sensitivity analysis of the model’s parameters has performed based on Mean Absolute Error of the model relative to parameters’ changes. In the sensitivity analysis, the consistency between model results and observed runoff has been investigated. In general, it can be concluded that according to the accuracy level and the required input data, the WASMOD model has a good capability in simulating the monthly runoff. The Nash coefficient for model calibration and verification were obtained 0.62 and 0.55, respectively.

Model complexity is not sufficient for its accuracy. In practice, the models which are designed according to the nature of process and its applicability are more common. The main challenge is not to understand all the details about the process, but to make the problem simple and focus on the most important and effective factors. In this study, the WASMOD software is used to rainfall-runoff modeling. Despite of the simplicity of this model, the obtained results have good consistency with the observed values. It needs only basic meteorological data for a basin such as: precipitation and temperature, so it takes less time and cost for modeling. The model was run on a monthly time scale for two 15-year periods: calibration period (1975-1989) and verification period (1995-2009). The sensitivity analysis of the model’s parameters has performed based on Mean Absolute Error of the model relative to parameters’ changes. In the sensitivity analysis, the consistency between model results and observed runoff has been investigated. In general, it can be concluded that according to the accuracy level and the required input data, the WASMOD model has a good capability in simulating the monthly runoff. The Nash coefficient for model calibration and verification were obtained 0.62 and 0.55, respectively.

Model complexity is not sufficient for its accuracy. In practice, the models which are designed according to the nature of process and its applicability are more common. The main challenge is not to understand all the details about the process, but to make the problem simple and focus on the most important and effective factors. In this study, the WASMOD software is used to rainfall-runoff modeling. Despite of the simplicity of this model, the obtained results have good consistency with the observed values. It needs only basic meteorological data for a basin such as: precipitation and temperature, so it takes less time and cost for modeling. The model was run on a monthly time scale for two 15-year periods: calibration period (1975-1989) and verification period (1995-2009). The sensitivity analysis of the model’s parameters has performed based on Mean Absolute Error of the model relative to parameters’ changes. In the sensitivity analysis, the consistency between model results and observed runoff has been investigated. In general, it can be concluded that according to the accuracy level and the required input data, the WASMOD model has a good capability in simulating the monthly runoff. The Nash coefficient for model calibration and verification were obtained 0.62 and 0.55, respectively.

Model complexity is not sufficient for its accuracy. In practice, the models which are designed according to the nature of process and its applicability are more common. The main challenge is not to understand all the details about the process, but to make the problem simple and focus on the most important and effective factors. In this study, the WASMOD software is used to rainfall-runoff modeling. Despite of the simplicity of this model, the obtained results have good consistency with the observed values. It needs only basic meteorological data for a basin such as: precipitation and temperature, so it takes less time and cost for modeling. The model was run on a monthly time scale for two 15-year periods: calibration period (1975-1989) and verification period (1995-2009). The sensitivity analysis of the model’s parameters has performed based on Mean Absolute Error of the model relative to parameters’ changes. In the sensitivity analysis, the consistency between model results and observed runoff has been investigated. In general, it can be concluded that according to the accuracy level and the required input data, the WASMOD model has a good capability in simulating the monthly runoff. The Nash coefficient for model calibration and verification were obtained 0.62 and 0.55, respectively.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Rainfall-Runoff model-Calibration-WASMOD.-Basin-Verification-