عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]چکیده [English]
In rainfall- runoff simulation of a basin under climate change, various uncertainties affect final results which would reduce reliability of the results if neglected. Also, overlooking uncertainties relating to climate change could exert unreal results for decision makers. In this research, we are trying to investigate the influence of uncertainty of rainfall-runoff and AOGCM models on Gharesu basin in 2040-2069 periods under A2 emission scenario. Nine AOGCM-AR4 models including; CCSM3، CGCM3، CSIRO Mk3، GFDL، GISS E-R، ECHAM5 ،HadCM3 ،MIROC-med ، PCM and two conceptual rainfall-runoff models; SIMHYD, IHACRES were applied. At first, two rainfall-runoff models were calibrated for 1971-2000 periods. Downscaling the data of nine AGCOM-AR4 models for study area and introducing them to the rainfall-runoff models, changes of basin temperature, precipitation and runoff in 1971-2000 relative to the 2040-2069 was highlighted under A2 scenario. Results of this research showed that regarding uncertainties related to AOGCM and Hydrology models result in more accurate nomination in runoff modification in the area of study.