بررسی و مدلسازی شکست دو سد متوالی تحت سناریوهای متفاوت (مطالعه موردی سدهای گلپایگان و کوچری)

نویسندگان

چکیده

سیلاب ناشی از شکست سد، یکی از فاجعه آمیزترین حوادث در دو قرن اخیر بوده است. در این نوع سیلاب مقدار قابل توجهی آب در مدت زمان کوتاهی در پایین دست رودخانه رها شده و موجب پیدایش خسارات عظیم در پایین دست می گردد. با توجه به اهمیت شکست سد، استفاده از مدل های ریاضی برای شبیه سازی پیشروی و انتشار سیل ناشی از آن امری ضروری است. در پژوهش حاضر شبیه سازی شکست سدهای خاکی گلپایگان و کوچری در استان اصفهان با استفاده از نرم افزار MikeFlood مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. جهت شبیه‌سازی مدل دوبعدی Mike?? داده‌های مرزی و شرایط اولیه مورد نیاز برای شروع کار را از مدل یک بعدی Mike?? دریافت کرده و پس از پر شدن آبراهه اصلی و نفوذ به دشت سیلابی فعال شده و شروع به شبیه‌سازی دوبعدی جریان در دشت سیلابی مینماید. در این تحقیق سه سناریو محتمل: ?) شکست هر دو سد در اثر روگذری، ?) شکست سد گلپایگان در اثر رگاب و شکست سد کوچری در اثر روگذری و ?) سد گلپایگان بدون شکست، و شکست سد کوچری در اثر رگاب مورد آزمون قرار گرفته است. در سناریو اول حداکثر دبی سیلاب در پایین‌دست ?????? مترمکعب بر ثانیه، در ?? دقیقه پس از شکست سد کوچری و در سناریو دوم حداکثر دبی سیلاب ?????? متر مکعب بر ثانیه، در ?? دقیقه پس از شکست سد کوچری و در سناریو سوم حداکثر دبی سیلاب ????? مترمکعب بر ثانیه در ?? دقیقه پس از شکست سد کوچری رخ می‌دهد. همچنین زمان‌های هشدار و پهنه‌بندی سیلاب در سناریوهای مختلف مورد مقایسه قرار گرفت. نتایج نشان داد در اثر شکست سد در هر سه سناریوی متفاوت، شهرک الوند و شهرک صنعتی سعیدآباد که از جمله مناطق مهم در پایین‌دست سد هستند دچار آب‌گرفتگی نخواهند شد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigation and modeling of two sequential dam failures under different scenarios (Case study Golpayegan and Kucherei dams)

نویسندگان [English]

  • sahar vaziri
  • Elham Izadinia
چکیده [English]

Dams have many essential benefits to serve the increasing demand of human population in making world a better place for living. Dams are purposely built for irrigation, power generation, flood mitigation, water supply and even for recreation and fishing activities. However, substantially huge amount of water body stored behind the standing dam structure could seriously pose severe risks to many. Great level of energy stored in the impounded reservoir will cause unbearable impacts if it be released suddenly to the downstream area. Therefore, it is important to conduct a dam break study to determine the outflow resulted from break event.
The art of dam break modeling lies primarily in the prediction of the outflow hydrograph as a result of dam failure. This can be done via physical models and laboratory experiments and numerical modeling techniques. Physical models are not always financially viable therefore, the numerical modeling is often taken as a better alternative. Numerical modeling techniques estimate the outflow hydrograph via four methods;
physically based methods; parametric models; predictor equations and comparative analysis
This study has used the MIKE modeling software to simulate the dam break event, determine the outflow hydrograph to be routed to the downstream area, and to obtain the flood maps. Furthermore, animation tools available in MIKE software offer better appreciation of the dam break event, added with enhanced graphics of inundation maps to visualize the flood wave movement in variation of time and space.
In the present study, the simulation of the dam break in Golpayegan and Kucherei earth dams in Isfahan Province was investigated using MikeFlood software. The MikeFlood is a software that creates a relationship between the one-dimensional model Mike?? and two-dimensional model Mike??. The way it operates is when the Mike?? is activated at times before the flow section fills in the main river and conducts flood routing in the main waterway. As the discharge increases and the cross-section fills in the main river and the stream enters the floodplain, the Mike?? model is activated and begins to simulate a two-dimensional flow in the floodplain. Due to different boundary conditions, different scenarios occur, which need to be introduced into the model. In this research, there are three possible scenarios including: ?) break of the both Golpayegan and Kucherei dams due to the overpass; ?) the break of the Golpayegan dam due to the piping, and the Kucherei dam due to the overpass, ?) no break in the Golpayegan dam, and the Kucherei dam break due to the piping, have been tested and compared.
In the first scenario, ?? minutes after the Kucherei dam breakdown, the maximum flow rate of ?????? m?/s was perdicted. In the second scenario, the maximum flow rate of ?????? m?/s, ?? minutes after the Kucherei dam breakdown was perdicted, and in the third scenario, the maximum discharge of ????? m?/s was perdicted, ?? minutes after the Kocherei dam breakdown. The flood alert time and zone division have also been compared in different scenarios. In the first scenario, the floodplain has more area and the advance rate was faster. In the third scenario, the flow rate was lower than the others. Also, the Alvand town will not be flooded due to its location in a higher area than Golpayegan city, and also, Saeed Abad industrial town will not be flooded. The alert, peak arrival and flood recession times in the sections increase and are directly related to the increase ofthe distance from the sections to the dam. The results showed that due to the dam breakdown in all three different scenarios, Alvand town and Saeed Abad industrial town, which are among the important areas below the dam will not be flooded.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Dam failure
  • Floodplain
  • Flood routing
  • Golpayegan Dam
  • Koocherei Dam
  • MikeFlood Software